Is it really the right time to buy real estate?

The question arises systematically, regardless of the real estate cycle or economic context. Yet, phrased this way, it is almost always poorly formulated.

Because in real estate, the right time is never a single moment, but a combination of price, financing, and time. Recent history demonstrates this very clearly.

1. Buying when everything goes wrong: the 2008 crisis case

In 2008, the subprime crisis caused a global shock:

bank failures,
brutal credit contraction,
widespread economic uncertainty.

At that time, the dominant narrative was: "This is definitely not the time to buy!" Many waited, and some bought regardless, often forced or convinced against the tide.

With hindsight, the observation is unambiguous: real estate prices, especially in major metropolises like Paris, rose sharply in the years that followed.

Why?

Because the purchase price was adjusted to the perceived risk.
Because time absorbed the volatility.
Because real estate is a slow asset, not an instantaneous one.

It is not the crisis that creates value. It is the price paid during the crisis, combined with the holding period.

2. Buying when rates are very low: a comfort… but not a guarantee

Conversely, between 2016 and 2021, historically low interest rates profoundly changed the market:

maximum borrowing capacity,
easier access to credit,
increased competition among buyers.

Prices logically rose, and sometimes very quickly.

Today, some owners reselling properties bought during this period are discovering another reality: higher rates, more selective demand, and sometimes necessary price adjustments. This does not mean these purchases were bad. It means the rate/price pair has inverted. They bought high but with inexpensive credit. They sometimes sell for less, but after having benefited from exceptional financing.

3. Rates and prices: a mechanism of communicating vessels

One of the most misunderstood points in real estate is this: interest rates and prices are structurally linked.

When rates go down, prices go up.
When rates go up, prices correct or stabilize.
The two rarely move in the same favorable direction at the same time.

Waiting for very low rates and very low prices amounts to waiting for an exceptional configuration, often short-lived and difficult to exploit. The real question is therefore never "is it the right time?" but rather, what is the right compromise today?

4. The decisive factor everyone underestimates: time

A real estate purchase cannot be evaluated in the short term without taking a risk of analytical error. The real questions to ask are the following:

How soon will I resell?
Will I be free to sell, or forced?
Is it a purchase for use or an opportunistic purchase?

The longer the holding horizon, the more secondary the exact timing becomes. This is precisely why:

purchases made in uncertainty can become very high-performing,
while purchases made in euphoria can disappoint in the short term.

5. Buying today: neither obvious nor a mistake

Buying today means accepting several realities: rates are no longer historically low, economic visibility is limited, the market is more rational and demanding. But buying today also means: buying at prices that are often better negotiated, facing less emotional competition, benefiting from a market where value prevails over speed. It’s not a bet, it’s an arbitrage!

6. The true real estate paradox

With hindsight, we always observe the same thing:

the best time to buy is almost always yesterday, because time works in favor of real estate,
the best time to sell is often tomorrow, in an optimistic scenario, or yesterday, when there was certainty about the price,
but today is almost always a moment of doubt.

And this doubt is healthy. Bad decisions are rarely made in doubt. They are made in euphoria or in fear.

Conclusion : Consistency over Prediction

There is no perfect time to buy. There are coherent decisions, made at a justified price, with controlled financing, and a holding horizon compatible with market reality. In real estate, those who succeed over the long term do not try to guess the future. They seek not to be constrained by it. This is exactly where advice makes all the difference.